Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Pebnles Doe, and I'm a trader and investor from Maine. I've been in the markets for a while, and I've also used prediction markets a few times to test the waters. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) because I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets in the US. I believe they serve a real purpose, and I want to share my thoughts on why the CFTC should encourage them with fair rules instead of heavy restrictions.
As someone who trades and occasionally gambles, I can tell you that prediction markets aren't just betting for the sake of betting. They require research, analysis, and a real understanding of events, much like trading stocks or futures. Ive used them to get a sense of where things like election outcomes or economic indicators might go, and the information I get from these markets is often sharper than what I hear from news or polls. They're not gambling in my book; they have a clear economic purpose, whether it's price discovery or hedging risks that affect my investments. I think the CFTC needs to recognize this distinction when looking at questions like 15 and 16 about defining "gaming" versus legitimate markets.
I also care a lot about consumer protection, and that's why I believe regulated platforms like Kalshi are the way to go. I've seen what unregulated offshore sites look like, and they're a mess, with no oversight and no accountability. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts prediction markets here, people like me will just get pushed to those shady platforms. That's not protecting anyone; it's making things worse. Id rather trade on a US-based, CFTC-regulated market where I know there are rules in place. This ties directly to questions 7 and 8 about balancing innovation with consumer protection. Regulation, not prohibition, is the answer.
Another thing that gets me is the idea of the US leading in financial innovation. Weve got the talent and the markets to be at the forefront of this space. Why should we let other countries take over just because we're too cautious? Prediction markets are backed by solid academic research showing they aggregate information better than most other tools. I want the CFTC to consider this when looking at questions 33 and 34 about classification and the benefits of these markets. Lets not stifle something valuable.
As a Hispanic trader, I also think these markets open doors for communities like mine to participate in a fair, legal way. Were a growing demographic, and many of us are eager to engage with new financial tools. Prediction markets give us a chance to have a stake in understanding and forecasting real-world events, and I want that freedom to continue under smart regulation.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate rules for prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Keep them regulated here in the US where they can be safe, transparent, and innovative. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Pebnles Doe
