Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Alexander Cox, and I'm an everyday citizen from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, mostly to get a sense of what's likely to happen with elections and other big public events, and I strongly support regulating them in a fair and balanced way.
I believe prediction markets are incredibly valuable because they often give more accurate forecasts than polls or pundits. I've seen this firsthand. During the last election cycle, I checked platforms like Kalshi to get a read on the odds of certain outcomes, and their numbers cut through the noise of cable news and social media hot takes. That kind of clarity isn't just helpful for people like me; it's useful for everyone who wants a better grasp on what's coming, whether it's journalists, policymakers, or just regular folks planning their lives. Banning or over-restricting these markets would mean losing access to a unique source of information.
I also want to stress that event contracts aren't gambling. When I put money on a prediction, I'm not just guessing or playing a game. I'm researching, reading up on candidates or policies, and making an informed call about the real world. That feels a lot closer to investing in stocks than pulling a slot machine lever. Classifying these contracts as gaming, as some might suggest, misses the point. They serve real economic purposes, like helping people hedge against uncertainty or figure out market sentiment. I think the CFTC should recognize this distinction, as raised in questions 15 to 22 of the ANPR about defining gaming versus legitimate markets.
Of course, I get that there are risks, like manipulation or insider trading. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues in other markets, and I believe those can be applied here too, as touched on in questions 1 to 6 about core principles and regulations. Shutting down prediction markets or slapping on broad bans to stop a few bad actors feels like overkill. It's better to focus on targeted rules that address specific problems. Plus, if these markets are heavily restricted here, people will just turn to unregulated offshore platforms, which are way less safe for consumers like me. I'd much rather see the CFTC keep them under proper oversight, as discussed in questions 7 to 14 on balancing innovation and consumer protection.
I'm just a regular guy trying to make sense of a complicated world, and prediction markets have been a helpful tool for that. I urge you to support proportionate regulation that lets these markets operate while addressing real risks with focused solutions. Don't ban or overly limit them. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Alexander Cox
