Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Matthew Hunt, and I'm a software engineer from Kentucky. Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on regulated prediction markets like Kalshi, I strongly support the development of fair, proportionate regulations for event contracts rather than overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
I got into prediction markets a couple of years ago because, frankly, I was tired of relying on shaky polls or talking heads for insights on elections, economic data, or policy changes that impact my life and work in tech. Trading on Kalshi has given me access to aggregated information thats often more accurate than anything Id find on the news. Its not gambling to me. Its a tool. I research, analyze, and make informed decisions, just like I would with stocks or other investments. Labeling event contracts as gaming feels like a misstep when they serve real economic purposes, like price discovery and hedging risks tied to real-world events.
Im particularly concerned about the idea of over-restricting these markets. I understand the need for consumer protection, and Im all for strong oversight to prevent manipulation or insider trading. But the CFTC already has powerful tools to tackle those issues in other derivatives markets. Why not adapt those instead of imposing broad categorical bans? If prediction markets are pushed offshore to unregulated platforms, regular folks like me lose the safety of a regulated space. Thats not protection. Its just shifting the problem out of sight.
I also believe the US should be leading the charge in financial innovation. As a tech professional, I see how fast the world moves. If we stifle prediction markets here, other countries will step in, and well lose the chance to set the standard. Plus, academic research backs this up. Studies by economists like Hanson and Wolfers show how these markets improve information aggregation. Informed trading isnt a bug; its a feature that benefits everyone by making prices more accurate.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7 under Public Interest, I believe the balance between innovation and protection lies in targeted rules, not blanket prohibitions. And on Question 29 under Inside Information, I think informed traders often enhance price discovery, as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
In short, I urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets with proportionate rules that address specific risks without shutting down access for everyday participants like me. Lets keep these markets safe, transparent, and in the US where they can be properly overseen.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Matthew Hunt
