Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Malik Williams, and I'm just a regular citizen from North Carolina writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly believe they have real value for people like me, as well as for society as a whole. I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets rather than restricting or banning them.
For me, prediction markets aren't about gambling. They're a tool to manage real financial risks. As someone who runs a small side business here in North Carolina, I've got to think about how things like election outcomes or new regulations might hit my bottom line. A while back, I used a prediction market to hedge against a potential policy change that could have raised my costs. It wasn't a big bet, just a small position to offset a risk I couldn't control. That kind of protection matters to everyday folks and small business owners like me, not just Wall Street types. These markets let regular people have a stake in managing uncertainty, and that's a good thing.
I also see the bigger picture. Prediction markets give us information you can't find anywhere else. I've noticed how often their forecasts on elections or public events beat out polls or pundits. That accuracy helps everyone, whether you're trading or not, by shining a light on what might happen next. Its not just for personal use either; better data can guide public decisions and keep the U.S. competitive in financial innovation. We shouldn't be falling behind other countries on this.
Now, I get the concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation. Those are real risks. But the answer isn't shutting down these markets. Laws already exist to stop federal employees or anyone else from trading on nonpublic info. The CFTC already has the power to crack down on bad actors. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets would just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which is worse for consumer protection. I'd rather see strong, fair rules that keep these markets safe and accessible here at home.
Specifically, on some of the questions in the ANPR, I think the CFTC should focus on balancing innovation with protection, as in Question 7 under Public Interest. And for Question 15 on Listed Activities, please don't lump these contracts in with gaming. They serve a real economic purpose, like hedging or price discovery. I'm also drawn to the idea in Question 29 about inside information. Informed traders can actually make prices more accurate, as long as rules against abuse are enforced.
I hope the CFTC will craft proportionate regulations that let prediction markets thrive while addressing specific risks. Don't ban or limit them broadly. Keep them legal, highly regulated, and open to everyday people like me. If the time does come that a ban needs to occur we'll adjust but go after bad actors in the space who use military actions and trade on insider information.
Sincerely,
Malik Williams
