Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is John Crowell, and Im a small business owner from Texas. Ive run my own company for over a decade, navigating the ups and downs of markets, regulations, and economic uncertainty. Im writing to you regarding the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Ive used prediction markets a few times myself, and I strongly support their continued operation under fair, proportionate regulation by the CFTC.
As a business owner, I rely on good information to make decisions. Prediction markets have consistently provided better forecasts than polls or pundits, especially on elections and major public events. Ive seen firsthand how the aggregated wisdom of these markets often cuts through the noise of media spin. This isnt just helpful for me; its valuable for everyone, from policymakers to everyday citizens trying to understand whats coming next. Beyond forecasting, these markets let me and other businesses hedge against real risks. Whether its a policy change that could hit my bottom line or an economic shift tied to a Federal Reserve decision, having a tool to manage that uncertainty is practical, not speculative.
I want to stress that event contracts arent gambling. They serve a legitimate economic purpose, much like any other investment or derivative. Classifying them as gaming undercuts their value for price discovery and risk management. Trading on these platforms takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. And frankly, I believe in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If you ban or over-restrict these markets, youre not stopping the activity; youre just pushing it to less transparent, riskier venues. The U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not handing that edge to other countries.
I also want to address some of the concerns raised in your ANPR, particularly around manipulation and insider trading, like in Questions 29-32. I get the worry about bad actors, but the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle fraud and manipulation in other derivatives markets. Use those tools here instead of broad bans. Informed trading actually improves price discovery, benefiting everyone in the market. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few cheaters punishes honest participants like me.
I urge you to consider these points, especially under Topic B (Public Interest, Questions 7-14) on balancing innovation with protection. Dont let overregulation stifle a tool that democratizes information and helps manage risk. Support proportionate, targeted rules that address specific issues without killing the market altogether.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
John Crowell
