Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jeremy Cheney, and I'm just an everyday citizen from Virginia writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi for a while now, and I believe prediction markets are valuable tools that deserve fair and thoughtful regulation, not outright bans or heavy-handed restrictions.
I got into prediction markets because I wanted a better way to understand what's happening in the world. The forecasts on these platforms are often more accurate than what I see from polls or TV pundits. I've used them to get a clearer picture of election outcomes and economic events, and that kind of information isn't just helpful to me, it's useful to anyone trying to make sense of an uncertain future. I think society benefits when regular people like me can access this kind of data through a transparent, regulated system.
What worries me is the idea of over-restricting or banning these markets. If that happens, activity won't just disappear. It'll move to unregulated offshore platforms where there's no oversight, no consumer protection, and no accountability. I've seen some of those sites, and they don't feel safe or trustworthy. Compare that to a platform like Kalshi, which operates under CFTC rules. I feel much more confident trading there knowing there's a framework in place to protect users and prevent manipulation. Regulation is the answer, not prohibition.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are just gambling. They're not. When I trade on Kalshi, I'm doing research, weighing probabilities, and making informed decisions, just like I would with stocks or other investments. These markets let me hedge against real-world risks, like policy changes that could affect my personal finances. That's a legitimate economic purpose, not a game.
On your specific questions, particularly in Topic Area B about public interest (Questions 7-14), I think the CFTC should prioritize innovation alongside consumer protection. The United States has a chance to lead in financial innovation with prediction markets, setting a global standard for how they're regulated. If we stifle them here, other countries will step in, and we'll lose that edge. And on Topic Area C (Questions 15-22), I urge you not to classify these contracts as gaming. They serve a real purpose for price discovery and risk management.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible to everyday people like me while ensuring they're safe and fair. Please don't let over-restriction push this valuable tool into the shadows of offshore platforms. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Jeremy Cheney
