Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Brandon Shuey, and I'm a trader and investor from California. Im writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Ive been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I find these markets incredibly valuable, not just for me personally, but for society as a whole. Theyre honestly very cool, and I think they deserve a fair shot under thoughtful rules, not heavy-handed restrictions.
I rely on prediction markets for insights that I cant get anywhere else. Whether its forecasting election outcomes or other major public events, the prices on these platforms consistently outshine polls or pundit guesses. Ive seen firsthand how they cut through noise and provide real, data-driven signals. This isnt just helpful for traders like me; its better information for everyone, from regular folks to policymakers trying to make sense of whats coming next. I believe this ties directly to your questions on public interest and price discovery in Topic Area B, especially Question 7 about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I think supporting these markets is in the publics interest because they democratize access to high-quality information.
Another reason Im passionate about this is the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, are a safe space to trade. Theyve got rules, transparency, and accountability. If you ban or over-restrict prediction markets, youre not stopping the activity; youre just pushing it to unregulated offshore sites where theres no protection at all. Thats worse for everyone. Id urge you to consider this in Topic Area B, Question 9, about how regulation impacts risk management. Keeping these markets onshore and regulated is the smarter path.
I also want to push back on any idea that event contracts are just gambling. Thats not what Im doing when I trade. Im researching, analyzing, and making informed decisions based on real-world events, much like I do with stocks or other investments. These contracts have legitimate economic purposes, like price discovery and even hedging risks tied to public events. Classifying them as gaming under Topic Area C, Question 15, would miss the point of what they actually do. And honestly, academic research backs this up. Studies Ive read show how prediction markets aggregate information efficiently, often better than other methods. Transparency in data from these markets could be a goldmine for understanding public sentiment if handled right.
Im not blind to concerns like manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to tackle those issues. Use them. Dont punish the rest of us by shutting down something so useful. I respectfully ask that you support well-regulated prediction markets and avoid bans or overly restrictive rules that would drive innovation and participation offshore. Lets keep this fair, safe, and accessible for traders like me.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Brandon Shuey
