Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jae Price, and I'm a trader and investor based in California. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me, and I urge the CFTC to craft regulations that protect consumers without stifling this innovative tool.
As someone who trades regularly, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets offer insights you can't get from polls or news pundits. The prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced information, and I've used that to make better decisions, whether it's gauging the impact of an election on my investments or anticipating economic shifts like interest rate changes. This isn't gambling to me; it's a serious tool that requires research and judgment, much like trading stocks or futures. Plus, having access to these markets as an individual trader feels fair. If only big institutions could participate, they'd hoard all the valuable information, and that's not right.
What really matters to me, though, is consumer protection. I've traded on Kalshi, which operates under CFTC oversight, and I feel much safer there than I would on some unregulated offshore platform. Those offshore sites have no accountability; if something goes wrong, there's nowhere to turn. Regulated markets, on the other hand, have rules and oversight to prevent manipulation and ensure fairness. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets here in the U.S. would just push people like me to those riskier alternatives. That's not protecting consumers, it's putting us in harm's way.
I want to address a couple of the specific questions in the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the answer is clear: regulation, not prohibition, is the way to go. Keep markets like Kalshi operating under your supervision so people have a safe place to trade. And on Question 29, regarding inside information, I believe the existing laws against insider trading are enough. The CFTC already has the power to go after bad actors, so there's no need to shut down entire markets to address a problem that's already illegal.
I'm not naive. I know there are risks with prediction markets, like potential manipulation or misuse. But those risks exist in every financial market, and the solution isn't to ban them, it's to enforce the rules you already have. I strongly urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible while protecting consumers from harm. Don't push activity offshore by over-restricting here at home.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Jae Price
