Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Larontae Robinson, and I'm just a regular citizen from Oregon writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I'm not an expert or a big-time investor, but I care about having the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets, and I believe prediction markets have a lot of value for people like me. I'm new to this space, but after learning about these markets, I'm excited about their potential and want to see them regulated in a fair way, not banned or overly restricted.
I think prediction markets are a powerful tool. They let everyday folks like me have a say in forecasting events, and the prices that come out of these markets often seem more accurate than polls or talking heads on TV. That kind of information isn't just helpful for traders; it benefits everyone who wants to understand what's likely to happen, whether it's an election, a policy change, or some economic shift. I also believe that informed trading, where people bring their knowledge and research to the table, makes those prices even sharper. It's not gambling, it's a way to aggregate what people know. To me, that's a real economic purpose, not just a game. Calling it gambling feels like a misunderstanding of how much thought and judgment goes into these trades.
I'm also worried about the US falling behind in financial innovation. If we over-regulate or shut down prediction markets here, we'll just push this activity to offshore platforms with no oversight. I've read about places like Kalshi that are trying to do this the right way under CFTC rules. That's where I want to participate, not on some sketchy foreign site with no consumer protections. Regulation is important, but it should keep markets safe and open, not drive them away.
Looking at some of the questions in the ANPR, I want to touch on a couple that stand out to me. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the CFTC can do both by setting clear rules for manipulation and fraud while still letting these markets grow. And on Question 15, about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I strongly feel event contracts aren't gambling. They're about real-world outcomes that affect my life, and trading on them takes skill and information, just like any other investment.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and those are valid. But the answer isn't to ban prediction markets. It's to enforce the laws we already have and tailor regulations to address specific risks. Please don't shut out regular people like me from a market that can inform us and let us hedge against uncertainty. I urge you to support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible, safe, and innovative here in the US.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Larontae Robinson
