Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Kevin Marquez, and I'm a regular citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they offer unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will create rules that allow these markets to thrive without over-restricting access.
I've found prediction markets to be an incredible tool for getting information that's hard to find anywhere else. Honestly, the forecasts on these platforms have often been more accurate than what I see from polls or TV pundits. I remember last year, trading on election outcomes, the market prices gave me a clearer picture of what might happen than any news segment did. That kind of insight isn't just useful for traders; it helps everyone, from regular folks like me to journalists and even policymakers, make better decisions. I think the CFTC should recognize this public benefit when considering regulations, especially in response to questions 7 and 8 about balancing innovation and public interest.
I also see real practical value in using prediction markets to manage personal risks. As someone who runs a small side business, I'm often worried about how policy changes or economic shifts might hit my bottom line. Trading on event contracts lets me hedge against uncertainties, like a potential tax change tied to an election result. It's not gambling; it's a way to protect myself, much like how farmers or businesses use other derivatives for hedging. I urge the CFTC to consider this legitimate use case when looking at questions 15 and 16 about defining the purpose of these contracts.
I understand there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation. I get that those are real issues, but I don't think the answer is to shut down or overly restrict prediction markets. The CFTC already has laws and tools to tackle bad actors, and those should be enforced rather than punishing everyone by limiting access. Banning these markets would just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which seems worse for consumer protection. I'd point to questions 29 and 30 on insider trading, and suggest focusing on targeted enforcement instead of broad prohibitions.
I'm just an everyday person who values the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like these. They give me a stake in understanding the world better, and they provide information that benefits us all. Please support proportionate rules that let prediction markets continue to grow while addressing specific risks with focused solutions.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Kevin Marquez
