Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Christian Avila, and I'm a small business owner from Minnesota. Im writing to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). Im pretty new to these markets, but Ive come to see their value, especially for someone like me whos always juggling financial risks in running a business.
As a business owner, I deal with uncertainty every day, whether its policy changes, economic shifts, or even weather events that could impact my operations. Prediction markets offer a unique tool to hedge some of those risks. For example, if theres an upcoming election or regulatory decision that could affect my taxes or supply costs, I can use these markets to offset potential losses. Its not gambling, its a practical way to protect my livelihood with research and judgment, much like any other investment. I also believe that having access to the kind of information these markets provide, prices that often beat out polls or pundits, is a huge benefit not just for me but for anyone trying to make informed decisions.
Im particularly drawn to the idea that informed trading in these markets improves price discovery, which helps everyone involved. When people with real knowledge or insight trade, the prices reflect a clearer picture of whats likely to happen. Thats not a flaw, its a strength. It means I can trust the data more, whether Im hedging a risk or just trying to understand the odds of an event. Sure, theres a concern about insider trading, but I dont think the answer is to shut down these markets. The CFTC already has rules and powers to tackle manipulation or abuse. Use those tools instead of punishing the rest of us who want to participate fairly.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 29, regarding whether informed traders help price discovery, I say absolutely yes. Their participation makes the market smarter, and that benefits small players like me who rely on accurate signals. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think the focus should be on clear, fair rules, not heavy-handed bans that could push trading to unregulated offshore platforms.
Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont over-restrict or ban them. Theyre a valuable tool for people like me to manage real risks, and with the right oversight, they can thrive without harming anyone. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Christian Avila
