Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Shawn Lewis, and I'm a student from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm not a legal expert or anything, just a regular guy who believes in making better decisions for positive outcomes. I've made mistakes like everyone else, but I'm focused on moving forward with good intentions. Part of that is engaging with tools like prediction markets, which I actively trade on through platforms like Kalshi.
I support well-regulated prediction markets because they provide information you can't find anywhere else. As a student, I rely on accurate forecasting for things like elections and public events to better understand the world around me. I've seen firsthand how prediction markets often predict outcomes better than polls or pundits. That kind of price discovery helps not just traders like me, but anyone making decisions, from regular folks to policymakers. Plus, trading on these platforms isn't just about guessing, it's about research and judgment. It also helps financially, especially when you're in a tough spot like Ive been before. A little extra gain from informed trading can make a difference.
I know there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues. Instead of banning or over-restricting these markets, I think you should use the existing rules to go after bad actors. Shutting down platforms like Kalshi would likely push activity to unregulated offshore sites, which are way less safe. I'd rather see the US lead in financial innovation and keep these markets transparent and accountable here at home. On a side note, I enjoy the community aspect of apps like Kalshi, and I don't think features like comment sections should be disabled. They help us share ideas and learn.
I'm particularly interested in the questions you raised in the ANPR, like Question 11 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, and Question 29 about whether informed traders help price discovery. I believe they do. When people bring real knowledge to the table, it makes the market's predictions sharper, which benefits everyone. Also, these markets aren't just for speculation, they help individuals and businesses hedge real risks, like policy changes or economic shifts, as touched on in Question 8 about risk management.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or overly restrict them. Focus on targeted rules to address specific risks while letting these platforms provide valuable information and opportunities for people like me. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Shawn Lewis
