Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Michael Fava, a retired business owner from Florida. I've spent decades running my own business, making tough calls based on uncertain information, and now, in retirement, I stay active by trading on prediction markets like Kalshi. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to urge you to support proportionate regulation of these markets rather than banning or over-restricting them.
As someone whos always had to keep an eye on economic and political trends, I find prediction markets incredibly valuable. They give me insights I can't get from polls or pundits. I've seen time and again how these markets predict outcomes more accurately than so-called experts on TV. That kind of information isn't just useful to me as a trader; it benefits everyone who pays attention. During my business years, I would have loved access to this kind of real-time data to plan for policy changes or economic shifts.
What I appreciate most is the freedom to participate in a legal, regulated market like Kalshi. Unlike sports books that limit bets or delay trades if they think you're too good at it, prediction markets let me trade in real time with no hassle, even if I'm profitable. That fairness matters to me. Its not gambling; its about research and judgment, just like any other investment Ive made in my life. Plus, regulated platforms are far safer than unregulated offshore ones. If you ban or over-restrict these markets, people like me wont just stop trading. Well get pushed to less safe, offshore sites with no oversight. Id much rather keep my money and activity on a CFTC-regulated platform where there are rules and protections.
I also want to address some of the concerns raised in your ANPR, specifically around public interest and the risks of manipulation or insider trading (Questions 7-14 and 29-32). I get why those are worries, but shutting down markets isnt the answer. The CFTC already has tools to go after bad actors, and insider trading is already illegal for federal employees and others with nonpublic info. Use those existing powers instead of punishing everyone by limiting access to these markets.
Prediction markets are a tool for regular folks like me to engage with the world, hedge risks, and make informed decisions. Im asking you to regulate them in a way that addresses real risks without killing the benefits. Dont push activity offshore by over-restricting. Keep markets like Kalshi accessible under fair, clear rules. I believe the CFTC can strike that balance, and Im counting on you to do so.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Michael Fava
