Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Tyler Nordwall, and I'm just a regular citizen from Texas writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I think theyre a valuable tool for people like me, and I want to explain why the CFTC should regulate them proportionately instead of banning or over-restricting them.
First off, prediction markets give me information I can't find anywhere else. I've seen firsthand how their forecasts on elections and public events are often more accurate than polls or pundits. Thats not just helpful for traders; its useful for everyone, from regular folks to policymakers, who need better data to make decisions. Beyond that, these markets let me hedge real financial risks. Whether it's an election outcome that could impact my taxes or a policy change affecting costs, having a way to offset uncertainty is a big deal for me and others trying to manage personal budgets or small businesses.
I also believe event contracts arent gambling. They serve real economic purposes like price discovery and risk management, much like trading stocks or commodities. Classifying them as "gaming" feels like a misstep to me. And honestly, the government doesnt need to play overprotective parent here. The CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other markets. Use those same powers for prediction markets instead of creating broad bans that punish everyone for the actions of a few bad actors. Informed trading actually makes prices more accurate, benefiting all participants, not just a select few.
Im also worried about what happens if these markets get over-restricted. Banning or limiting platforms like Kalshi will just push people to unregulated offshore sites, which are far less safe and lack any consumer protection. The US should be leading in financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries. Regulated markets are the answer, not prohibition. I think this ties into some of the questions in your ANPR, like numbers 7 and 8 on balancing innovation with protection, and 15 on defining legitimate markets versus gaming. My view is clear: target specific risks with focused rules, dont slap on categorical restrictions.
I hope the CFTC will support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible, safe, and innovative. Theyre too valuable to over-regulate out of existence. Thanks for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Tyler Nordwall
