Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Betsy Green, and I'm a business owner from Illinois writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not a lawyer or a financial expert, just someone who runs a small business and keeps a sharp eye on U.S. politics. Ive been trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a few years now, placing small bets five or six times a year, mostly for sport but also to stay informed. I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets, and I hope my perspective as an everyday participant helps shape your approach.
I rely on prediction markets for information that I cant get from polls or pundits. Honestly, their forecasts on elections and public events have been spot-on more often than any talking head on TV. As a business owner, that kind of insight helps me plan ahead, whether its anticipating policy shifts or economic changes that might hit my bottom line. I also use these markets to hedge real risks. For example, an election outcome can affect taxes or regulations that impact my business directly, and having a way to offset that uncertainty is valuable. This isnt gambling to me. Its research and judgment, much like any other investment I make.
Im also a firm believer that regulated markets like Kalshi are the safest place for this activity. If you ban or over-restrict prediction markets, people like me wont just stop trading. Well get pushed to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight, no consumer protection, nothing. Thats a worse outcome for everyone. And frankly, I dont get why placing bets on current events raises eyebrows when there are casinos on every block packed with folks glued to slot machines, losing money with no skill or thought involved, and they are ferociously addicted. Kalshi is on line, no flashing lights or bells or dings, no gratification rewards to trade hours into the night and lose all gamblers have. People attracted to Kalshi are making one or two bets many in small numbers and our outcome Prediction markets arent like that. We are business owners and middle class to wealthy level-headed traders who do this without any real attachment to the outcome and we are not going broke from "gambling" because Kalshi is not gambling. Most of us bet on what we BELIEVE we know and we harm no one in that process. Please do not commit overreach on an activity that is so harmless and has not surfaced as harmful.
Regarding some of your specific questions, like those in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I think prediction markets clearly provide a public good through accurate forecasting and risk management. On Topic C about listed activities (Questions 15-22), I urge you not to classify event contracts as gaming. Theyre legitimate tools for hedging and information gathering. And on innovation, as raised in Questions 33-40, I believe the U.S. should be a leader in financial markets like these, not cede ground to other countries by over-regulating.
Im not blind to concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to address bad actors. Dont punish the rest of us with broad bans. Focus on targeted, proportionate rules instead. I ask that you support well-regulated prediction markets and keep them accessible to regular people like me.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Betsy Green
