Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Taylor Maerlender, and I'm a student from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, mostly out of curiosity as part of my academic interests, and I strongly support their continued operation under fair, proportionate regulation. I believe these markets provide real value, both to me personally and to society, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow them to thrive.
As a student, I'm always looking for better ways to understand the world, whether it's politics, economics, or social trends. Prediction markets have been eye-opening for me because they often give more accurate forecasts than polls or pundits. I've seen this firsthand when checking platforms like Kalshi for election odds or economic indicators. The prices reflect a kind of crowd wisdom that you just don't get from opinion pieces or surveys. This isn't just useful for traders; it's information anyone can learn from, including students like me who want to make sense of complex events.
I also believe in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets aren't gambling, no matter how some might label them. They take research and critical thinking, much like investing in stocks or other financial instruments. I've put time into understanding the events I trade on, and that process has made me more informed about the world. These markets serve real economic purposes, like helping people hedge risks or gain insights. Treating them as mere games would be a mistake, and I urge the CFTC to recognize this distinction when addressing questions like 15 and 16 on defining gaming versus legitimate markets.
I'm also worried about what happens if these markets are banned or over-restricted. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, feel safe and transparent to me. If rules become too tight, people will just turn to unregulated offshore sites, which are riskier and harder to monitor. I've read about this happening with other financial products, and I don't want to see it here. On a related note, I think the US should be leading the way in financial innovation. If we push prediction markets out, other countries will step in, and we'll lose the chance to set the standard. These concerns tie directly to questions 7 and 8 in the ANPR about balancing innovation with consumer protection.
I understand there are risks, like potential manipulation or insider trading. But the CFTC already has tools to tackle those issues, and banning entire markets to stop a few bad actors seems like the wrong approach. Instead, I ask that you focus on targeted rules to address specific problems while letting legitimate platforms operate.
Thank you for considering my perspective. I hope the CFTC will support well-regulated prediction markets and avoid overly restrictive policies that could harm innovation or push activity offshore.
Sincerely,
Taylor Maerlender
