Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is John Doe, and I'm a student from California writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I have a personal interest in this issue because I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi, and I believe these markets provide immense value to people like me and to society at large. I want to share why I support well-regulated prediction markets and urge you to adopt proportionate rules rather than broad restrictions.
As someone who studies and follows public events closely, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets often outperform polls and pundits when it comes to forecasting election outcomes or other major events. The aggregated wisdom in these markets gives me, and the public, better information to understand what's really happening. This isn't just about making a profit, though I do enjoy the challenge of trading. It's about having access to insights that help me make sense of a complex world. I also think these markets can help me hedge personal financial risks, like potential policy changes that might affect my student loans or future job prospects.
I know some folks worry about manipulation or insider trading, and I get that. But the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle those issues in other markets, and I believe they can be applied here too. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets doesn't solve the problem, it just pushes activity to unregulated offshore platforms where there's no oversight at all. I'd much rather trade on a regulated platform like Kalshi, where there are consumer protections in place, than take my chances with some sketchy foreign site.
I'm also concerned about labeling event contracts as "gaming." I enjoy a good wager as much as the next person, but trading on prediction markets isn't the same as gambling. It takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. These contracts serve real economic purposes, like price discovery and risk hedging, and I think the data from these markets could even help academic research, which is close to my heart as a student.
In response to some of your specific questions, like those in Topic Area B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe prediction markets balance innovation with consumer protection when they're properly regulated. And regarding Topic Area E on inside information (Questions 29-32), I think informed trading actually improves price discovery and benefits everyone, as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced. Finally, for Topic Area C on listed activities (Questions 15-22), I urge you not to classify these contracts as gaming but to recognize their legitimate uses.
I want the U.S. to lead in financial innovation, not fall behind other countries. Please support proportionate, targeted regulation that addresses specific risks without shutting down these valuable markets. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
John Doe
