Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Avon Brown, and I'm a trader and investor based in New York. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to share my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to craft rules that support their growth rather than restrict them.
Prediction markets have completely changed how I access information about the world. Ive seen firsthand how their forecasts are often more accurate than polls or pundits. Whether its an election outcome or a major economic event, the prices on these platforms cut through the noise and give a clearer picture of whats likely to happen. This isnt just useful for traders like me; its valuable for anyone making decisions, from business owners to regular folks trying to plan their lives. I think of it as a public good, not some niche hobby.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are gambling. Trading on Kalshi requires research and judgment, just like trading stocks or futures. Its not a game of chance. For me, its a way to hedge real risks. For instance, Ive used prediction markets to offset uncertainty around election outcomes that could impact my investments or tax planning. This isnt betting; its practical risk management. And honestly, having the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets like this feels fair. If only big institutions get access, they hoard all the insights while the rest of us are left guessing.
On the topic of regulation, I strongly believe that regulated platforms like Kalshi are far safer than the alternative. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, people wont just stop trading; theyll move to unregulated offshore sites with no oversight. Thats worse for everyone. Im glad the CFTC is asking for input on balancing innovation with consumer protection, as raised in Questions 7 and 8 under the Public Interest section. My view is simple: use the tools you already have to prevent manipulation and insider trading, as you do for other markets, but dont shut down something valuable to stop a few bad actors.
I also want to address Questions 15 and 16 about defining legitimate markets versus gaming. These contracts serve real economic purposes like price discovery and hedging, not entertainment. Lets regulate them based on that reality. Banning broad categories would be a mistake when targeted rules can address specific risks.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible and safe for traders like me, and ensure the public can benefit from the accurate forecasts these markets provide. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Avon Brown
