Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Gavin Gilbert, and I'm an everyday citizen from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm new to prediction markets, but I've come to see their value and believe they deserve fair and proportionate regulation, not heavy-handed restrictions.
As someone who follows elections and public events closely, Ive noticed how often polls and pundits get things wrong. Prediction markets, on the other hand, seem to cut through the noise. They aggregate what people really think, based on where theyre willing to put their money. That kind of accuracy isnt just interesting, its useful for everyone, whether youre trading or not. It helps regular folks like me get a clearer picture of what might happen, whether its a presidential race or a major policy shift. I think thats worth protecting.
I also believe in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, offer a safe way for people like me to engage with these markets. If we over-regulate or ban them, activity will just move to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight at all. Thats not safer for anyone. Id rather see the US lead in financial innovation, setting a standard for how these markets should work, instead of ceding ground to other countries with looser rules.
Im aware of concerns about manipulation or insider trading, and I get why those are issues. But the CFTC already has strong tools to address them. Laws against market manipulation and insider trading apply to prediction markets just like they do to stocks or commodities. Enforcing those existing rules makes more sense than broad bans that punish everyone for the actions of a few. I was looking at some of the questions in the ANPR, like Question 7 on balancing innovation and consumer protection, and Question 29 on inside information. My take is simple: focus on enforcing the rules youve got, and dont let a fear of bad actors kill a good idea.
Prediction markets have real potential to inform and empower people like me, and Id hate to see that stifled. I urge you to support proportionate regulation that allows these markets to grow under clear, fair guidelines. Lets keep the US at the forefront of this space, with safe, regulated platforms that benefit everyone.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Gavin Gilbert
