Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Thomas Marecki, and I'm a trader and investor from New Jersey. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and I'm writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide real value to people like me, as well as to society at large, and I urge the CFTC to craft rules that support their growth while addressing legitimate risks.
As a trader, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets offer information you can't get anywhere else. Their forecasts on elections and public events consistently beat polls and pundits. I rely on this data not just for trading but to make sense of the world, and I know others do too. It's not gambling, either. Trading on Kalshi takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. Classifying event contracts as "gaming" would be a mistake; they serve real economic purposes like price discovery and hedging. For example, I've used these markets to hedge personal financial risks tied to policy changes or economic indicators. A small business owner could do the same for regulatory shifts, or a family could offset risks tied to interest rate decisions. This is practical, not a game.
I also value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Platforms like Kalshi, under CFTC oversight, are far safer than unregulated offshore alternatives. If you over-restrict or ban these markets, activity will just move to less transparent venues, putting consumers at greater risk. Regulation, not prohibition, is the answer. I'm also concerned about U.S. competitiveness. We should be leading in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries by stifling these markets.
Regarding some of your specific questions, like those in Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), I believe prediction markets balance innovation with consumer protection when properly regulated. They improve price discovery and benefit everyone by aggregating information efficiently. On Topic E (Questions 29-32) about inside information, I think informed trading actually helps price discovery. Bad actors should be prosecuted under existing laws, not used as an excuse to shut down entire markets. And on Topic C (Questions 15-22), I urge you not to treat event contracts as gaming. They have legitimate uses that deserve protection.
I'm not blind to the risks. Manipulation and insider trading are real concerns, but the CFTC already has tools to address them. Use those tools, don't punish the rest of us by over-restricting access. I ask that you support proportionate regulation of prediction markets, allowing platforms like Kalshi to operate while targeting specific abuses with focused rules. Let's keep this valuable tool accessible to everyday traders like me.
Sincerely,
Thomas Marecki
