Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Dan Valdman, and I'm a small business owner from California. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm relatively new to prediction markets, but I strongly support their development under fair and proportionate regulation. As someone who runs a business, I see real value in these markets, both for my own decision-making and for society at large.
I rely on accurate information to make smart choices for my business, whether it's about economic trends or policy changes that might impact my costs. I've noticed that prediction markets often provide forecasts that beat out polls or pundits. That kind of data transparency is hard to find elsewhere, and I believe it can help not just me, but the public and even policymakers make better decisions. It's also important to me that regular people like myself have the freedom to participate in these legal, regulated markets. Shutting out individuals while letting big institutions play keeps valuable information out of our hands.
As a business owner, I also see the practical side. Prediction markets let individuals and businesses hedge real risks, like policy shifts or economic changes that could hit my bottom line. These aren't games; they serve a legitimate economic purpose and shouldn't be lumped in with gambling. I worry that banning or over-restricting these markets would just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far riskier for consumers. I'd much rather see a platform like Kalshi, operating under CFTC oversight, than have people turn to sketchy alternatives.
I'm also concerned about U.S. competitiveness. We should be leading the way in financial innovation, not handing that edge to other countries. On top of that, academic research backs up the value of these markets for price discovery, and I believe informed trading only makes the data better for everyone. Addressing specific questions in your ANPR, like those in Topic Area B on public interest (Questions 7-10), I think the CFTC should prioritize innovation alongside consumer protection. And on Topic Area E regarding inside information (Questions 29-32), I believe the existing laws and CFTC tools against manipulation and insider trading are enough if enforced properly. There's no need for broad bans when targeted rules can handle the risks.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't over-restrict or ban them. Let's keep these markets safe, accessible, and innovative right here in the U.S. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Dan Valdman
