Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ren Santos, and I'm a trader and investor based in Hawaii. I'm writing to express my strong support for the proportionate regulation of prediction markets as outlined in the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi, and I can honestly say these markets have been a game-changer for me, both financially and in how I understand real-world events.
I love how prediction markets work right now. I've made profits by researching and trading on events that impact my life, like economic data releases or political outcomes. More importantly, the accuracy of these markets has been impressive. The prices often reflect a clearer picture of what's likely to happen than any news outlet or poll I've come across. This isn't just good for me as a trader; it's valuable information for everyone, whether they trade or not. I believe informed trading, where people like me put in the time to analyze and bet on outcomes, actually improves price discovery. That benefits all market participants, and even the broader public, by creating a more accurate signal of what might happen.
As someone who runs my own investments, I also see real value in using prediction markets to hedge personal financial risks. For instance, trading on election outcomes or federal policy decisions helps me manage uncertainties that could affect my portfolio or taxes. This isn't gambling. It takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or futures. I worry that overly restrictive rules could take away my freedom to participate in these legal, regulated markets. I want to keep access to platforms like Kalshi, where I know theres oversight, instead of being pushed toward unregulated offshore sites.
Regarding some of the specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to address Question 11 under Public Interest. Prediction markets absolutely serve a public good by aggregating information efficiently, and that outweighs the risks if theyre properly regulated. On Question 29 under Inside Information, I think informed traders help, not hurt, price discovery. The CFTC already has tools to tackle insider trading or manipulation, so theres no need to ban entire markets over a few bad actors.
I'm asking you to support well-regulated prediction markets with clear, fair rules that dont shut out regular traders like me. Lets keep innovation alive in the U.S. and ensure these markets remain accessible on regulated platforms. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Ren Santos
