Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Mathias Anderson, and I'm a student from Illinois with a strong interest in economics and public policy. I'm writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi, I want to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they offer unique value to society and to individuals like me, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow them to thrive while addressing valid concerns.
I've always been fascinated by how markets can aggregate information, and trading on prediction markets has shown me firsthand how powerful they are at producing forecasts. I've seen them consistently outperform polls and pundits when it comes to predicting election outcomes or economic indicators. For example, last year I followed the market for a major national election on Kalshi, and the price movements reflected shifts in public sentiment weeks before traditional polls caught up. This kind of real-time, accurate information isn't just helpful for traders like me, it's valuable for everyone, from journalists to policymakers who need reliable data to make informed decisions. I think this ties directly to your questions 7 and 8 in the ANPR about the public interest and price discovery benefits of event contracts.
I also want to stress that trading on these markets isn't gambling, no matter what some critics say. It takes research and critical thinking, just like investing in stocks or futures. I'm not rolling dice, I'm analyzing news, historical trends, and public data to make informed bets on real-world events. This serves a real economic purpose, whether it's helping me understand risks or contributing to better price discovery for everyone. I think this relates to your questions 15 and 16 about defining gaming versus legitimate market activity, and I urge you to recognize event contracts as distinct from gambling.
Of course, I get that there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading. Those are real issues, but the CFTC already has tools to address them. Laws against insider trading apply to federal employees and others with nonpublic information, and your existing authority to combat market manipulation is strong. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets to stop a few bad actors would hurt students like me who use these platforms to learn and engage with the world. It would also push activity to unregulated offshore sites, which is worse for everyone.
I'm asking the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that lets prediction markets operate while targeting specific risks with focused rules. These markets provide better information for public decision-making, and they deserve a fair chance to grow under your oversight. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Mathias Anderson
