Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Scott Tamcke, and I'm just a regular citizen from Idaho writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've used prediction markets a few times, and I believe they have real value for people like me. I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets instead of banning or over-restricting them.
I value the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Prediction markets aren't just a game; they're a tool that helps everyday folks and businesses hedge against real risks. For instance, Ive used these platforms to offset uncertainties tied to economic events that could impact my familys budget, like inflation data or policy changes. This isnt gambling. Its about making informed decisions based on research and judgment, much like investing in stocks. I think labeling event contracts as gaming, as discussed in Questions 15-22, misses their legitimate economic purpose of price discovery and risk management.
I also worry that banning or overly restricting these markets will push activity to unregulated offshore platforms. Id much rather trade on a CFTC-regulated market like Kalshi, where theres oversight and accountability, than be forced to use some shady foreign site with no protections. The US should be leading the way in financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries. This ties into Questions 7-14 on balancing innovation with consumer protection. I believe regulation can achieve both without shutting down access.
Another point I care about is how prediction markets provide better information for public decision-making. The prices on these platforms often predict outcomes more accurately than polls or pundits. That benefits everyone, not just traders. Informed trading, as raised in Questions 29-32, actually improves price discovery. When knowledgeable people participate, the market reflects reality better, and we all gain from that insight. Banning markets to stop a few bad actors, like potential insiders, feels like overkill when the CFTC already has tools to tackle manipulation and fraud.
Im not saying there arent risks. I get that some might try to game the system. But punishing everyone by restricting access isnt the answer. Use the laws already in place to go after wrongdoers. Dont take away a valuable tool from law-abiding citizens like me who use these markets responsibly.
Please consider proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible under CFTC oversight. Lets keep the US at the forefront of financial innovation while ensuring safety through smart rules, not outright bans. Thank you for taking the time to read my comments.
Sincerely,
Scott Tamcke
