Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Joshua Garcia, and I'm a trader and investor from Texas. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi for a while now, and Im writing to support well-regulated prediction markets in response to your Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me and to the public at large, and I want to share my perspective.
As someone who trades regularly, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer information you cant get anywhere else. The prices reflect real-time insights on events like elections or other public happenings, often more accurately than polls or pundits. Ive used this to better understand whats likely to happen, whether its for personal decisions or just to stay informed. This isnt just useful for traders; it helps everyone by putting better data out there for public decision-making. I think thats a huge benefit.
Ive also had frustrating experiences that show why regulation matters. Once, I lost money on a player prop bet because a player got injured just seconds into a game. My entire combo bet was wiped out, even though my other props cashed. It didnt feel fair to lose everything over something out of my control so early in the game. I think there should be a rule where, if a player gets injured in the first few minutes, that prop should be treated as a single bet, not part of a combo. Clear rules like this would protect traders like me, and its why I believe regulated markets like Kalshi are so much safer than unregulated offshore platforms. With proper oversight, issues like this can be addressed fairly, whereas offshore sites offer no recourse at all.
I want to touch on a couple of your specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulation should focus on creating fair rules without shutting down these markets. Theyre too valuable for price discovery and forecasting. And on Question 15, about defining gaming versus legitimate markets, I dont see prediction markets as gambling. Trading on Kalshi takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks. Its not a game of chance.
Im also concerned about over-restricting these markets because of fears like insider trading or manipulation. Those are already illegal, and the CFTC has the tools to enforce against bad actors. Banning or overly limiting prediction markets punishes honest traders like me and pushes activity to sketchy offshore sites with no oversight.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Keep platforms like Kalshi accessible to everyday people, and focus on targeted rules to address specific risks rather than broad restrictions. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Joshua Garcia
