Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jumone Watson, and I'm writing from Florida to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I'm an active trader on platforms like Kalshi, and I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they offer unique value to individuals like me and to society as a whole, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow these markets to thrive without over-restricting access.
I've been trading on prediction markets for a while now, and I've seen firsthand how they provide information you just can't find elsewhere. The prices reflect a collective judgment that's often more accurate than polls or expert opinions. This isn't just useful for traders; it helps everyone by making forecasts more transparent. I also value the freedom to participate in these legal, regulated markets. Shutting out regular people like me would mean the benefits of this information stay with big institutions. That's not fair, and it makes the market less accurate since fewer perspectives are included.
One thing I care deeply about is the academic research behind prediction markets. Studies by economists like Hanson and Wolfers show that these markets are powerful tools for aggregating information. Informed trading, where people bring real knowledge to the table, improves price discovery for everyone. Instead of worrying about insider trading, which is already illegal, the CFTC should focus on encouraging participation and transparency. Banning or over-regulating these markets because of a few bad actors would punish the majority of us who trade honestly and contribute to better data.
I'm also concerned about data transparency, which ties into some of the questions in your ANPR, like those in Topic Area B on public interest (Questions 7-14). Prediction markets generate valuable public data, and I think the CFTC should prioritize rules that ensure this information remains accessible while balancing consumer protection. On Topic Area E, regarding inside information (Questions 29-32), I believe informed traders often make markets more accurate, not less. The focus should be on enforcing existing laws against abuse, not restricting the whole market.
Prediction markets aren't gambling. They take research and judgment, just like trading stocks. I use them to hedge risks that affect my life, like economic policies or election outcomes that could impact my finances. Please don't let overblown fears of manipulation or misuse lead to broad bans. The CFTC already has tools to address those issues. Use them, but let us keep participating.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to grow while addressing specific risks with targeted rules. Don't shut down this innovative tool that benefits so many of us.
Sincerely,
Jumone Watson
