Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Don Kay, and I'm just a regular guy from Oregon writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im not a financial expert or a lawyer, just someone who has been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now. Ive come to value these markets, and I want to urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets without over-restricting or banning them.
I believe prediction markets are a powerful tool, not just for me but for everyone. They give better information than most polls or pundits, often predicting outcomes with surprising accuracy. That kind of price discovery helps people make smarter decisions, whether its about politics, economics, or even weather events. Plus, I see trading on these platforms as a way to participate in something bigger. Its not gambling, no matter what some might say. It takes research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Ive spent hours reading up on election data or economic indicators before placing a trade. To me, event contracts serve real economic purposes, like hedging risks or gaining insights, and they shouldnt be lumped in with gaming.
I also want to stress that regulated markets like Kalshi are far safer than the unregulated offshore platforms out there. If the CFTC cracks down too hard or bans these contracts, people like me will just get pushed to less secure venues with no oversight. Thats not protecting anyone. Id rather trade on a platform under CFTC rules, knowing there are safeguards in place. Speaking of which, I know the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other derivatives markets. Why not apply those same tools here instead of creating broad bans? Targeted, proportionate regulation makes more sense than shutting down entire categories of contracts.
I noticed a few questions in the ANPR that hit on these points. For Question 8 under Public Interest, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulation should encourage platforms to operate safely in the U.S. rather than driving them offshore. And for Question 15 under Listed Activities, about defining gaming, I strongly believe event contracts arent gaming when theyre tied to real-world outcomes and used for hedging or information. Theyre economic tools, plain and simple.
Im asking the CFTC to regulate prediction markets in a fair, targeted way. Dont punish regular folks like me by over-restricting or banning these markets. Keep them accessible, safe, and under proper oversight. Thanks for taking the time to read my thoughts.
Sincerely,
Don Kay
