Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Peter Wan, and I'm a software engineer from Tennessee. I'm writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the proportionate regulation of prediction markets, and I want to share why I believe they are valuable and why regulation, not restriction, is the right path forward.
As someone who works in tech, I value tools that aggregate information efficiently, and prediction markets do just that. I've used them a few times to follow forecasts on elections and other public events. What struck me is how often their predictions are more accurate than traditional polls or media pundits. This isn't just useful for traders like me; it helps everyone by providing clearer signals about what's likely to happen. Whether it's an election outcome or a major policy shift, having access to crowd-sourced probabilities feels like a public good.
I also think regulated markets are the only way to go. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, offer a level of transparency and safety that you just don't get with unregulated offshore sites. If we over-restrict or ban prediction markets here, people won't stop trading; they'll just move to sketchy platforms with no accountability. I've seen enough shady apps and websites in my line of work to know that pushing activity underground never solves the problem. It just makes it worse. Regulation keeps things above board and protects users.
I want to address a concern I know the CFTC has about manipulation or insider trading. I get why that's a worry, but the answer isn't to shut down these markets. The CFTC already has tools to tackle fraud and manipulation in other derivatives markets, and those can be applied here. Banning prediction markets to stop a few bad actors feels like overkill, especially when so many of us use them responsibly.
On some of the specific questions in the ANPR, like those in Topic Area B about balancing innovation and consumer protection (Questions 7-14), I'd argue that regulation achieves both. It lets innovation thrive while setting guardrails. Similarly, for Topic Area E on insider information (Questions 29-32), I think the focus should be on enforcing existing laws against trading on nonpublic info, not broad prohibitions.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support well-regulated prediction markets. They provide unique value through accurate forecasting, and with proper oversight, they can be a safe and fair tool for everyone. Please don't ban or over-restrict them. Focus on smart rules instead.
Sincerely,
Peter Wan
