Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Newton Berwig, a 64-year-old resident of Florida, and I'm writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As an everyday citizen, I've found a renewed sense of purpose through participating in prediction markets like Kalshi. At my age, staying engaged with the fast-paced digital world isn't easy, but trading on these platforms has given me a way to keep up and feel involved in something meaningful. I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets and urge the CFTC to craft rules that allow regular folks like me to participate without pushing this activity offshore or over-restricting it.
I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, and I can tell you firsthand that these markets aren't just games or gambling. They require research, thought, and real-world judgment, much like investing in stocks. The information they produce is often more accurate than polls or pundits, and that benefits everyone, not just traders. For instance, Ive used these markets to weigh in on events that affect my life, like economic policies or election outcomes, and its given me a stake in understanding these issues better. Why should only the rich and powerful have access to such opportunities? Platforms like Kalshi let regular people participate, and that democratizes information in a way Ive never seen before.
I also see real economic value in these markets. They help individuals and businesses hedge against risks, whether it's a policy change affecting taxes or an economic indicator impacting costs. Classifying event contracts as gaming ignores their legitimate purpose, and I hope the CFTC recognizes this in response to questions 15-22 on listed activities. On the topic of public interest from questions 7-14, I believe prediction markets drive innovation and price discovery while offering better data for public decision-making. The US should lead in financial innovation, not let other countries take over because of overly strict rules.
Im not blind to concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle these issues, as noted in questions 1-6 and 29-32. Banning or heavily restricting these markets doesnt solve the problem; it just pushes activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far riskier for consumers like me. Informed trading actually improves price discovery, and that helps everyone. Plus, academic research backs the value of these markets in aggregating information, something I hope the CFTC considers.
I ask you to support proportionate, targeted regulation instead of broad bans. Keep markets like Kalshi safe and accessible for everyday Americans. Dont let fear of a few bad actors punish the rest of us or drive innovation away from the US. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Newton Berwig
