Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Joe Hickman, and I'm just an everyday citizen from California writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I want to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in the United States.
I rely on these markets to get a real-time pulse on what real people think about commodity-related predictions. This isn't just a hobby for me; it helps me make better decisions with my commodity trades in the stock market. The information I get from prediction markets is something I can't find in polls or news. It's raw, aggregated insight from people putting their money where their mouth is. Beyond my personal use, I believe these markets serve a bigger purpose. They help with price discovery and let regular folks like me hedge against risks, whether it's an election outcome affecting taxes or a policy change impacting my investments.
I'm especially concerned about keeping a strong U.S. presence in this space. If we over-restrict or ban prediction markets, I worry we'll push all the activity to unregulated offshore platforms. I've traded on some of those too, and I can tell you they're nowhere near as safe or transparent as a regulated market like Kalshi, which operates under CFTC oversight. Banning these markets here won't stop people from trading; it'll just send them to less secure places where consumer protections are basically nonexistent. The U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not handing that advantage to other countries.
I also want to address the idea that event contracts are gambling. I don't see it that way at all. Trading on these markets takes research and judgment, just like any other investment. It's about analyzing real-world events and managing risk, not rolling dice. For me, it's a tool to hedge personal financial risks tied to things like commodity prices or policy shifts.
Looking at some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I think Question 7 about balancing innovation and consumer protection hits the nail on the head. We need rules that protect users without stifling the benefits of these markets. And on Question 15, regarding what counts as "gaming," I urge you not to lump legitimate event contracts under that label. Targeted regulation, not broad bans, is the way to go. Focus on specific risks like manipulation or insider trading with the tools you already have, as mentioned in Questions 29 and 30 about inside information.
I hope the CFTC will support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Let's keep this innovative space alive in the U.S. under proper oversight, rather than pushing it offshore or shutting it down with heavy-handed rules. Thanks for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Joe Hickman
