Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Aracelio Garrido, and I'm a software engineer based in Florida. I've been working in tech for years, which means I'm often looking at data, trends, and systems to solve problems. That's why I started trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they provide unique value to individuals like me and to society as a whole, and I urge you to craft rules that allow these markets to thrive under sensible oversight.
As someone who geeks out on data, I cant overstate how useful prediction markets are for getting insights you just cant find elsewhere. Ive seen firsthand how their forecasts often beat out polls or pundits on things like election outcomes or economic indicators. Thats not just helpful for traders; its valuable for anyone trying to make sense of the world, whether you're a journalist, a business owner, or just a curious citizen. These markets aggregate information in a way thats transparent and democratic, and I think shutting them down or over-restricting them would be a loss for everyone.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are gambling. Trading on these platforms isnt a game of chance. It takes research, analysis, and real-world judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. Ive used prediction markets to hedge personal risks, like potential policy changes that could impact my freelance tech projects. This isnt rolling dice; its a legitimate economic tool. Regarding your questions 15-22 on listed activities, I strongly believe event contracts should be recognized for their economic purpose, not lumped in with gaming.
Another concern I have is what happens if these markets get banned or overly restricted. Ive traded on regulated platforms like Kalshi, and I feel much safer there knowing theres oversight. But if access is cut off, people like me will just turn to offshore, unregulated platforms. Thats worse for consumer protection, not better. On questions 7-14 about public interest, I think regulation should focus on keeping markets safe and transparent, not pushing activity into shadowy corners. Plus, the US has a chance to lead in financial innovation. We shouldnt cede that to other countries by over-regulating.
Finally, on questions 29-32 about inside information, I believe informed trading actually helps price discovery. It makes the markets predictions sharper, which benefits everyone. Manipulation and insider trading are already illegal, and the CFTC has tools to enforce those rules. Dont punish all of us by restricting the market over the actions of a few bad actors.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation that allows prediction markets to operate legally and safely. Lets keep innovation and access alive while protecting consumers through smart oversight. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Aracelio Garrido
