Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Harry Concannon, and I'm a small business owner from Texas. I run a local hardware store here, and Ive been trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for a couple of years now. Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets, and Id like to share why they matter to me and why I think the CFTC should focus on smart regulation instead of heavy restrictions.
As a business owner, Im always trying to plan ahead. Elections and public events can directly affect my costs, taxes, and even customer demand. Ive found that prediction markets give me insights I cant get from news or polls. Honestly, the forecasts on these platforms have been way more accurate than anything I hear from pundits on TV. For example, last years election predictions on Kalshi were spot-on when most polls were all over the place. That kind of information helps me make better decisions for my store, and I know its valuable for others too, not just traders.
I also think its critical to keep these markets regulated here in the US. Ive used platforms like Kalshi, which operates under CFTC oversight, and it feels safe and transparent. Compare that to some offshore sites like Polymarket, where theres no real accountability. If we over-restrict or ban prediction markets, people like me will just go to those unregulated platforms instead. Thats not safer for anyone. Regulation keeps things above board, and Id rather trade on a platform I know is being watched by the CFTC.
One concern Ive heard is about insider trading or manipulation. I get that worry, but I think informed trading actually makes prices more accurate. When people who know something trade on it, the market reflects reality better, and that benefits everyone. Plus, the CFTC already has rules and tools to stop manipulation or insider abuse. Use those instead of shutting down a whole market. Im particularly interested in your questions 29 through 32 on inside information. My view is that the focus should be on enforcing existing laws, not creating broad bans that hurt regular traders like me.
Prediction markets arent just a game or a gamble. Theyre a tool for understanding the world, and they help people like me make informed choices. I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that addresses real risks without over-restricting or banning these markets. Lets keep innovation alive in the US and ensure platforms operate safely under your oversight.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Harry Concannon
