Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Joe Bookmark, and I'm a software engineer from Utah. Im writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who actively trades on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States. I believe they provide unique value to individuals like me and to society as a whole, and I urge the CFTC to craft rules that encourage innovation while addressing legitimate risks.
I got into prediction markets a couple of years ago because, frankly, I was frustrated with how often polls and pundits got things wrong, especially around elections. As a tech professional, I value data and accuracy, and Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets consistently outperform traditional forecasting methods. The prices on these platforms arent just guesses; they aggregate real information from a diverse crowd. Thats not only useful for my own decision-making, like timing financial moves based on election outcomes or economic events, but its also a public good. Better forecasts help everyone, from journalists to policymakers, make more informed choices.
I also use these markets to hedge personal financial risks. For instance, Ive placed trades to offset potential impacts of policy changes or economic data releases that could affect my income or investments. This isnt gambling, no matter what some might say. It takes research and judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. Id argue event contracts serve a real economic purpose, and treating them as mere games would be a mistake.
On the topic of regulation, Im all for sensible oversight, but Im worried about over-restricting or banning these markets. Platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC rules, are transparent and safe. If you clamp down too hard, people like me will just turn to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far riskier and harder to monitor. That doesnt solve problems; it creates them. Addressing specific concerns like manipulation or insider trading, as raised in Questions 1 and 29 of your ANPR, shouldnt mean punishing the entire market. The CFTC already has tools to tackle bad actors, and those should be applied here too.
Lastly, I think the US has a chance to lead in financial innovation. As someone in tech, I see how fast other countries are moving on new ideas. If we over-regulate prediction markets, well lose ground to places that embrace them. Im particularly interested in your Questions 7 and 8 about balancing innovation with consumer protection. I believe we can have both with targeted, proportionate rules.
I appreciate the CFTC seeking public input on this. My ask is simple: please support the growth of regulated prediction markets. Dont ban or overly restrict them. Lets keep this valuable tool accessible to everyday Americans like me while addressing risks in a focused way.
Sincerely,
Joe Bookmark
