Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Roldin Batista, and I'm a trader and investor based in Florida. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States, and I want to share why I believe they are valuable and why regulation, not restriction, is the right path forward.
As someone who trades regularly, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets provide unique information that you just can't find elsewhere. The prices on these platforms often reflect a clearer picture of what might happen, whether it's an election outcome or an economic indicator, than what you hear from pundits or see in polls. This isn't just helpful for traders like me. It's valuable for everyone, from journalists to policymakers, who can use this data to make better-informed decisions. I believe fostering these markets can improve public decision-making and price discovery, which benefits society as a whole.
I also want to stress that regulated markets, like Kalshi, which operates under CFTC oversight as a designated contract market, are far safer than the unregulated offshore platforms out there. I've traded on both, and the difference is night and day. On regulated platforms, there are clear rules, transparency, and protections in place. Offshore sites? You're rolling the dice with your money and your data. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans certain event contracts, people like me won't stop trading. We'll just be pushed to less safe, unregulated spaces. Thats not the outcome anyone wants.
I know there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I get it. Those are real issues. But the answer isn't to shut down prediction markets. Insider trading and manipulation are already illegal, and the CFTC has the tools to enforce those laws. Banning these markets to stop a few bad actors is like closing a highway because some people speed. Punish the violators, not the rest of us. I think the CFTCs focus should be on crafting targeted rules to address specific risks, not broad prohibitions.
In particular, Id like to address some of the questions in your ANPR. Regarding Questions 7 and 8 under Public Interest, I believe prediction markets do serve the public good through price discovery and by giving regular people a chance to participate in financial systems that are often reserved for big institutions. On Question 29 under Inside Information, I think informed traders actually help make prices more accurate, as long as theyre not breaking laws with nonpublic information.
I urge you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban or over-restrict them. Lets keep these markets safe and accessible under CFTC oversight, ensuring the U.S. leads in financial innovation.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Roldin Batista
