Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Laura Kneiss, and I'm an everyday citizen from Illinois writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I appreciate the CFTC taking the time to gather public input before drafting formal rules, and I hope my perspective as a regular participant can be helpful.
I believe prediction markets are incredibly valuable, not just for those of us who trade but for society as a whole. The prices on these platforms often provide insights you can't find in polls or news commentary. I've seen firsthand how they cut through noise and speculation to reflect what people really think will happen, whether it's about an election, an economic report, or even a weather event. As someone who isn't an insider or a big investor, I value the chance to participate in these markets. It's not gambling to me; it's about doing research, staying informed, and making judgments based on real-world events, just like any other kind of investing. Shutting regular folks like me out would only concentrate information with big players, and that doesn't seem fair.
One thing I'm passionate about is the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. I trust platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, far more than unregulated offshore sites. If the CFTC over-restricts or bans these markets, I worry activity will just move to less safe places where there are no protections. Plus, I think informed trading, even by people who might have unique knowledge, actually helps everyone. It makes the prices more accurate, which benefits all participants and even people who never trade but rely on the data. Addressing Question 29 from your ANPR, I believe informed traders contribute to price discovery, and the CFTC should focus on enforcing existing laws against insider trading rather than broad prohibitions.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or unfair advantages. But aren't those already illegal? The CFTC has tools to go after bad actors, and I think using those tools is better than punishing everyone by restricting access. Banning prediction markets to stop a few cheaters feels like closing a highway because some people speed. Let's keep the road open with proper enforcement.
I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Create rules that address specific risks while letting regular people like me continue to participate in a transparent, regulated environment. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Laura Kneiss
