Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Filip Mardjokic, and I'm a trader and investor based in Florida. I actively trade on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, and I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States, and I want to share why I believe they are valuable to me and to society as a whole.
As someone who trades regularly, I've seen firsthand how prediction markets provide information that you just can't find anywhere else. Whether it's forecasting election outcomes or other major public events, the prices on these platforms often cut through the noise of polls and punditry. I've relied on this data to make smarter decisions, not just in trading but in understanding the world around me. I believe this kind of aggregated insight benefits everyone, from individual citizens to policymakers, by offering clearer signals about what's likely to happen. It's not gambling, it's a tool for better decision-making. I spend hours researching and analyzing before placing a trade, just like I do with stocks or other investments. Calling this "gaming" feels like a misstep when it serves real economic purposes like price discovery.
Beyond forecasting, prediction markets also let me hedge against real risks. For example, political outcomes can impact taxes or regulations that affect my investments. Being able to trade on those events helps me manage uncertainty in a way that traditional markets don't always allow. I know businesses use these tools too, whether it's hedging against policy changes or economic shifts. This isn't just play money, it's practical.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but I don't think the answer is to restrict or ban these markets. The CFTC already has strong tools to go after bad actors, just like in other derivatives markets. I've read about your authority to prevent fraud and manipulation, and I trust you can adapt those rules to event contracts without throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few cheaters would punish the rest of us who use them responsibly.
I'm also worried that over-restricting these markets will push innovation overseas. The U.S. should be a leader in financial tools like this, not cede ground to other countries where unregulated platforms might take over. I'd rather see safe, CFTC-regulated markets like Kalshi grow here at home. Looking at some of your questions in the ANPR, especially numbers 7 and 8 on balancing innovation with consumer protection, I urge you to prioritize rules that encourage growth while addressing specific risks with targeted oversight.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or overly restrict them. They provide unique value through forecasting and hedging, and with the right rules, they can thrive safely under your supervision. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Filip Mardjokic
