Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Stephen Barnhill, and I'm a business owner from Texas. I'm writing to you about the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. I feel strongly that prediction markets are a good and fair way to trade, and I want to share my perspective as someone who has used these markets a few times and believes in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated platforms.
As a business owner, I understand the value of having access to tools that help make sense of an uncertain world. Prediction markets give me, and others like me, a chance to weigh in on events that impact my business, whether it's an election outcome that could change tax policies or a regulatory decision that might affect my costs. I've used these markets a few times to hedge against risks I can't control, and I've found the information they provide to be unlike anything else out there. The prices often seem more accurate than polls or news commentary, and that helps me plan better. I believe this kind of insight isn't just useful for me, but for society as a whole.
What bothers me is the idea that these markets could be overly restricted or banned outright. I think it's only fair that regular folks like me get to participate in these platforms alongside bigger players. If only large institutions can access prediction markets, all that valuable information stays locked away with them. Democratizing access makes the system fairer and the predictions stronger. And I don't see this as gambling at all. It takes research and real-world judgment, just like any other kind of investing I do.
I also want to stress that the United States should be leading the way on financial innovation. We shouldn't be ceding ground to other countries by over-regulating or shutting down prediction markets. If we push these activities offshore to unregulated platforms, we lose oversight and put users at greater risk. I'd rather see the CFTC focus on smart, proportionate rules that keep markets safe while letting them grow here at home. On that note, I'm particularly interested in your questions 7 through 14 on balancing innovation with consumer protection. I believe we can have both if regulation targets specific risks like manipulation, which you're already equipped to handle, rather than broad bans.
I know there are concerns about insider trading or market manipulation, but those are already illegal. The CFTC has the tools to go after bad actors without punishing everyone else. Shutting down prediction markets over a few potential bad apples would be like closing the stock market over insider trading. It just doesn't make sense.
I'm asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Let people like me continue to participate in a legal, regulated environment where innovation can thrive.
Sincerely,
Stephen Barnhill
