Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Elias Panageas, and I'm a student and academic from the United States. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets. As someone who has used these platforms a few times, I believe they provide unique value and should not be banned or overly restricted.
I've turned to prediction markets to get a clearer picture of complex events, whether it's an election outcome or an economic policy shift. The aggregated information in these markets often feels more reliable than opinion polls or news commentary. As a student, I find this kind of data incredibly helpful for understanding the world and making informed decisions, even if I'm just placing small trades. It's not about gambling for me; it's about access to insights that I can't find elsewhere. I think this benefit extends to society as a whole, not just to those of us who participate directly.
What concerns me most is the risk of banning or over-restricting these markets. If the CFTC clamps down too hard, people like me won't just stop engaging with prediction markets. We'll turn to offshore platforms that aren't regulated at all. I've seen friends and peers access these unregulated sites already, and it worries me because there's no oversight, no consumer protection, and no accountability. Pushing activity offshore doesn't solve problems like insider trading or manipulation; it makes them worse by taking them out of the CFTC's reach. Regulated markets, like those on registered DCMs, are a much safer option, and I believe the CFTC should focus on strengthening that framework instead of driving users away.
Regarding some of the specific questions in the ANPR, I want to address Question 7 under the Public Interest category. I believe prediction markets serve the public interest by democratizing access to information and fostering innovation in financial tools. But I also recognize the need to balance this with consumer protection, which is why regulation is key, not prohibition. Additionally, on Question 23 under Procedural Aspects, I think public interest determinations should happen on a case-by-case basis to avoid blanket bans that could stifle legitimate markets.
I understand there are concerns about manipulation or misuse, but those issues are already illegal under existing laws, and the CFTC has the authority to enforce them. Shutting down entire markets to stop a few bad actors punishes everyone else who uses these platforms responsibly. I urge the Commission to support proportionate regulation that keeps prediction markets accessible and safe within the United States, rather than pushing activity to less secure, offshore alternatives.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Elias Panageas
