Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is David Graves, and I'm just a regular guy from Tennessee whos taken an interest in prediction markets. I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, and Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets, and I want to share why I think theyre valuable, both for me personally and for society as a whole.
I got into trading on prediction markets a couple of years ago because I wanted a way to make sense of all the uncertainty in the world, whether its elections, economic policies, or even big weather events. The prices on these markets give me information I cant find anywhere else, often more accurate than what I see on the news or in polls. Its not just helpful for me as a trader; I think it benefits everyone when we have better data to work with. When people like me trade based on what we know or research, it helps make those prices sharper. Informed trading isnt a problem; its the whole point. It improves price discovery, and thats a win for all market participants, not just the folks with deep pockets.
I also want to push back on the idea that event contracts are gambling. Theyre not. Trading on these platforms takes real thought, research, and judgment about whats happening in the world, just like when I decide where to put money in stocks or other investments. More than that, prediction markets let people like me hedge against real risks. For example, Ive used them to offset worries about policy changes that could hit my budget, like tax hikes or shifts in regulations that affect costs here in Tennessee. Small businesses, farmers, and others can use these tools to protect themselves too. Thats not a game; its a practical way to manage uncertainty.
I understand there are concerns about things like insider trading or manipulation, and I get that those are serious issues. But the answer isnt to ban or over-restrict these markets. Laws already exist to stop federal employees or others from trading on nonpublic info, and the CFTC already has the power to crack down on manipulation. Shutting down prediction markets to stop a few bad actors would hurt regular folks like me who use them responsibly. Id urge you to look at specific questions in your ANPR, like Question 29 on informed traders and price discovery, and Question 7 on balancing innovation with consumer protection. I believe the focus should be on targeted rules that address real risks without killing the benefits.
Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont ban them or tie them up with rules so strict they cant function. These markets are a powerful tool for everyday people, and with the right oversight, they can thrive while staying safe and fair.
Sincerely,
David Graves
