Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Shaun Cantara, and I'm a trader and investor based in Maine. I've been actively trading on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and Im writing to express my strong support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I believe these markets provide unique value to people like me, and to society at large, and I urge the CFTC to regulate them proportionately rather than impose overly restrictive rules or bans.
As someone who trades regularly, Ive seen firsthand how prediction markets offer information and opportunities you cant get elsewhere. Theyre not just a game or a gamble. They require research, analysis, and real-world judgment, much like trading stocks or commodities. I use these markets to hedge personal financial risks, like potential policy changes from elections or economic data releases that could impact my investments. For instance, Ive placed trades on election outcomes because they could affect tax policies that hit my portfolio hard. This isnt gambling; its a practical tool for managing uncertainty. I believe many other individuals and even businesses use these markets for similar reasons, to protect against real risks.
I also want to address some concerns I know the CFTC has. On insider trading and manipulation, Im confident the tools you already have can handle bad actors. The CFTCs existing authority to combat market manipulation in other derivatives should apply here too. Theres no need for broad bans that punish honest traders like me. And lets be honest, banning or over-restricting these markets wont stop trading. Itll just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms, which are far less safe than a regulated market like Kalshi on a CFTC-registered exchange. Id much rather trade in a system with oversight and transparency.
Regarding specific questions in the ANPR, Id like to weigh in on Question 15 about defining gaming versus legitimate markets. Event contracts shouldnt be classified as gaming. They serve genuine economic purposes like hedging and price discovery, and academic research backs this up, showing how prediction markets aggregate information better than polls or pundits. Also, on Question 7 about public interest, I think the US has a chance to lead in financial innovation. If we over-regulate, we risk ceding that leadership to other countries, and I dont want to see that happen.
Im just a regular trader trying to make informed decisions, and prediction markets help me do that. They also make data transparent for everyone, not just big institutions. Please dont shut down or overly limit these markets. I ask that the CFTC focus on targeted rules to address specific risks while allowing honest participants like me to continue trading in a regulated environment.
Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Shaun Cantara
