Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Nic Notarangelo, and Im a broadcasting tutor and content creator based in Massachusetts. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. As someone who works in media and education, I closely follow public events and election cycles, and Ive become fascinated by prediction markets as a tool for forecasting and understanding the world. While I dont trade on these platforms myself, Ive seen their value in providing accurate, real-time insights that often outpace traditional polls or punditry. I strongly support the CFTC crafting proportionate regulations for these markets rather than imposing bans or overly restrictive rules.
For me, prediction markets arent just a niche interest. They offer unique information that helps people like me, who analyze and discuss public events for a living, make sense of complex issues. The aggregated wisdom of these markets often cuts through the noise of opinion and speculation, giving a clearer picture of what might happen in elections or major policy shifts. This isnt gambling, its a form of price discovery that benefits everyone, not just traders. I also believe in the freedom to participate in legal, regulated markets. Shutting down or over-restricting these platforms would push activity to offshore, unregulated spaces where theres no consumer protection at all. Thats a worse outcome for everyone.
I also see real economic value in these markets. Individuals and businesses can use event contracts to hedge against risks tied to political or economic uncertainty. For example, a small business owner I know worries about policy changes after elections that could impact their costs. Prediction markets could offer a way to offset that risk, just as farmers hedge crop prices. This isnt speculative betting, its practical. And from a broader view, the U.S. should be leading in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries. Academic research, which I value as an educator, backs this up, showing prediction markets improve information transparency and forecasting accuracy.
Regarding your specific questions, Id like to address numbers 7 and 14 under Public Interest. I believe the CFTC can balance innovation with consumer protection by focusing on strong oversight of designated contract markets, ensuring transparency and fairness without stifling access. On question 15 under Listed Activities, I urge you to define event contracts by their economic purpose, like hedging or price discovery, rather than labeling them as gaming. And on question 33 under Classification, I think treating these as distinct from gambling aligns with their real-world utility.
Im not blind to concerns like manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has tools to tackle those issues. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets punishes the many for the actions of a few. Instead, I ask you to support well-regulated markets that allow everyday people and businesses to participate safely while keeping the U.S. at the forefront of innovation.
Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Nic Notarangelo
