Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Anthony Pellegrino, and I'm a journalist based in Washington DC. Ive spent years covering public events, elections, and policy debates, always chasing the most accurate information I can find. Thats why Im writing to comment on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets, and Ive used platforms like Kalshi a few times myself to get a clearer picture of what might happen in the world I report on.
Prediction markets arent just a niche hobby. Theyve consistently outperformed polls and pundits when it comes to forecasting elections and other big events. As someone who relies on solid information to do my job, I cant overstate how valuable that is. These markets aggregate what people really think, based on where theyre willing to put their money. Thats data I cant get anywhere else, and its not just useful for me. It helps the public, policymakers, and even businesses make better decisions. Beyond forecasting, Ive also seen how these markets let regular folks and companies hedge real risks, like a business protecting itself against policy shifts or an individual worried about an elections impact on their finances. This isnt gambling. Its using research and judgment, much like trading stocks, and calling it gaming ignores the economic purpose it serves.
Im also concerned about freedom and fairness. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets doesnt stop the activity. It just pushes it to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight or consumer protection. Platforms like Kalshi, operating under CFTC rules, are far safer. Ive used Kalshi and think its the best example of how this can work right. The US should be leading in financial innovation, not ceding ground to other countries. Plus, the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading in other markets. Use those tools here instead of broad bans that punish everyone. And lets be honest, informed trading in these markets actually sharpens price discovery, which benefits us all.
Id like to address a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7 under Public Interest, I believe prediction markets clearly serve the public by improving information and price discovery. On Question 15 under Listed Activities, I urge the CFTC to avoid labeling event contracts as gaming when they have legitimate hedging and forecasting uses. Finally, on Question 29 under Inside Information, I think informed traders often make markets more accurate, and existing laws already bar federal insiders from abusing nonpublic info.
Im not blind to the risks, like potential manipulation. But the answer is targeted, proportionate regulation, not heavy-handed restrictions. Please support a framework that lets prediction markets thrive under fair rules, keeping activity onshore and safe. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Anthony Pellegrino
