Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jace Foddrill, and I'm a journalist based in California. Ive spent years covering politics, public events, and economic trends, and Ive come to rely on prediction markets as a unique source of insight. I dont trade on them myself, but I follow platforms like Kalshi closely because they often provide more accurate forecasts than traditional polls or punditry. Im writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516) to urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of these markets rather than imposing broad restrictions or bans.
As a journalist, I value accurate information above all else. Prediction markets aggregate real-time data from countless participants, often outperforming surveys or expert opinions when it comes to elections or major policy outcomes. This isnt just useful for traders; its a public good that helps inform reporting and decision-making for everyone. Beyond forecasting, these markets also allow individuals and businesses to hedge real financial risks, like policy changes or economic shifts that could impact livelihoods. Ive seen small business owners in my reporting discuss the uncertainty of regulatory changes, and prediction markets could offer them a way to manage that exposure.
I understand concerns about manipulation or insider trading, but the CFTC already has strong tools to address these issues in other derivatives markets. Those same tools can work here. Banning or over-restricting prediction markets wont stop bad actors; itll just push activity to unregulated offshore platforms where theres no oversight at all. Regulated markets like Kalshi are far safer for consumers, and they keep the US competitive in financial innovation. We should be leading in this space, not ceding ground to other countries. Also, lets be clear: event contracts arent gambling. They serve legitimate economic purposes like price discovery and risk management, and classifying them as gaming ignores their real value.
Id like to address a few specific questions from the ANPR. On Questions 7-14 under Public Interest, I believe the CFTC should prioritize balancing innovation with consumer protection by fostering regulated markets that encourage participation and transparency. On Questions 15-22 about Listed Activities, I urge you not to equate event contracts with gaming, as their economic utility sets them apart. Finally, on Questions 29-32 regarding Inside Information, I think informed trading actually improves price discovery and benefits all participants, as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
Prediction markets are a powerful tool for forecasting and risk management, and they deserve a fair regulatory framework. I ask the CFTC to adopt targeted, proportionate rules that address specific risks without stifling this innovative market. Lets keep these platforms safe, accessible, and in the US.
Sincerely,
Jace Foddrill
