Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Shufan Yang, and I'm just an everyday citizen from New York writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I strongly support the idea of well-regulated prediction markets. I believe they offer real value to people like me, and I hope the CFTC will craft rules that allow these markets to thrive without over-restricting them.
I got into prediction markets because I wanted a way to engage with events that affect my life, like elections or economic policies. The prices on these platforms often tell me things I can't find in news articles or polls. They're not perfect, but I've seen firsthand how they can cut through noise and give a clearer picture of what's likely to happen. Plus, trading on these markets isn't some mindless game. It takes research and thought, just like investing in stocks. I don't see this as gambling; it's a legitimate way to put my money behind my judgment and even hedge against risks, like policy changes that might hit my wallet.
I'm especially concerned about the idea of banning or overly restricting these markets. If regulated platforms like Kalshi, which operate under CFTC oversight, get shut down or limited, people like me will just turn to unregulated offshore sites. Those places have no accountability, and that's a much bigger risk for fraud or manipulation. I'd much rather trade on a platform where the rules are clear and enforced. On that note, I think the CFTC already has solid tools to handle issues like insider trading or market manipulation. There's no need to reinvent the wheel; just apply those existing powers to prediction markets.
I also believe the US should be a leader in financial innovation. If we clamp down too hard, other countries will step in and build the future of these markets without us. And let's not forget the value of informed trading. When people with real knowledge participate, it makes the prices more accurate, and that benefits everyone, not just traders. Academic research backs this up too. Studies show prediction markets are often better at forecasting than traditional methods, and that transparency helps everyone make better decisions.
I'd like to touch on a couple of specific questions from the ANPR. On Question 7, about balancing innovation and consumer protection, I think regulation should focus on transparency and enforcement, not outright bans. And on Question 29, about inside information, I believe informed traders often improve price discovery, as long as existing laws against insider trading are enforced.
In short, I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or over-restrict them. Let regular folks like me keep participating in legal, regulated spaces where our input matters. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Shufan Yang
