Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Preston Newbold, and I'm a trader and investor from Ohio. I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I've recently gotten into prediction markets on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, and I want to share why I think these markets are valuable and why the CFTC should regulate them fairly, not shut them down or overreach with heavy-handed rules.
I enjoy trading on prediction markets because they feel like real investing, not gambling. I'm not into sports betting or casino games, but trading on events like weather patterns or gas prices? That's different. It takes research and judgment, just like trading stocks or commodities. These markets let me hedge real risks in my life, like fuel costs that impact my budget. Calling this "gaming" is off base. Event contracts have a clear economic purpose, whether it's price discovery or managing uncertainty, and I think the CFTC should recognize that.
One thing I really value about prediction markets is how informed trading makes the prices better for everyone. When people who know something put their money where their mouth is, the market reflects more accurate information. That benefits not just traders like me, but anyone who looks at these prices, from businesses to regular folks trying to plan ahead. I see this addressed in your questions 29 to 32 about inside information, and my take is simple: informed trading helps price discovery. Sure, theres a risk of bad actors, but the CFTC already has tools to tackle insider trading and manipulation in other markets. Use those tools here. Don't ban a whole market just because a few might cheat. That'd be like closing the stock market over a couple of bad trades.
Look, I get that the government wants to protect people, but let's not overdo it. So much of American life is already overregulated, and prediction markets are one of the few fun, engaging ways for citizens like me to participate in something new. Don't ruin a good thing by trying to "help" too much. And honestly, if someone tries to bump the machine a little, so what? Play through. The fun and value are still there. It's nothing compared to how some in Congress trade stocks like their personal money printer.
I'm asking the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Address specific risks with targeted rules, as youve done with other derivatives. Don't ban broad categories or make it impossible for regular people to take part. Keep the US leading in financial innovation, and let us enjoy this space.
Thank you for considering my comments.
Sincerely,
Preston Newbold
