Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Roy Franks, and I'm just a regular guy from Texas whos taken an interest in prediction markets. Ive been actively trading on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket for a while now, and I wanted to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets, as published in 91 FR 12516. Im writing because I believe these markets provide valuable information for public decision-making, and I support regulating them in a fair and balanced way.
Ive found prediction markets to be an incredible tool for getting a read on whats really happening out there. The prices often tell me things I cant find in news articles or polls, and I think that kind of insight is useful not just for traders like me, but for everyone. Its like a crowd-sourced truth meter. Whether its an election outcome or an economic indicator, these markets cut through the noise and help with price discovery. I believe thats a public good worth protecting. Plus, letting everyday folks like me participate makes the information more accurate, since its not just big institutions calling the shots.
That said, Im not blind to the problems. I trade on U.S. gas markets, and Ive noticed some odd patterns. It often seems like certain individuals know the outcome of weekly events by Saturday for a Sunday night close. Ive heard murmurs that Triple A might be using a Dow Jones application instead of credit card data for some of these numbers, which raises questions. Theres way too much potential for insider trading going on, and it frustrates me as someone trying to play fair. But heres my point: the answer isnt to shut down these markets or slap on broad bans. The CFTC already has tools to tackle manipulation and insider trading. Use them. Target the bad actors, dont punish the rest of us.
I looked at some of the questions in your ANPR, especially in Topic E about inside information (Questions 29-32). I think informed traders can help with price discovery, but theres a line between being informed and having unfair access. Focus regulation on cracking down on actual insider trading, not on restricting whole categories of contracts. And under Topic B on public interest (Questions 7-14), Id argue that the benefit of better information for society outweighs the risks if you regulate smartly.
Im asking you to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Dont over-restrict or ban them outright. Keep them accessible to regular people like me, while going after the real problems with targeted rules. Thanks for considering my input, and please dont share my personal info with anyone. I dont want spam coming my way.
Sincerely,
Roy Franks
