Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Ethan Furgione, and I'm a student from Maryland. I'm writing to express my support for well-regulated prediction markets in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). As someone studying and engaging with public policy and current events, I've found prediction markets to be a valuable tool, and I believe they deserve thoughtful regulation rather than overly restrictive rules or outright bans.
I've used prediction markets a few times to follow along with major events like elections. What struck me most is how they often provide better forecasts than traditional polls or pundit opinions. I remember checking a market's odds on a tight Senate race last year, and the price reflected a much clearer picture of the likely outcome than any news analysis I read. That kind of aggregated insight isn't just useful for traders. It's helpful for students like me, journalists, and even policymakers who need reliable information to understand what's really happening. If only big institutions can access these markets, that valuable data stays locked away from regular people. I think opening them up democratizes information in a way that's fair and beneficial to society.
I also want to push back on the idea that prediction markets are just gambling. Participating in them isn't a game of chance. It takes research, critical thinking, and judgment about real-world events, much like investing in stocks. I've spent hours reading up on candidates and policies to inform my trades, and that process has made me a more engaged citizen. On the flip side, I get that there are concerns about insider trading or manipulation. But those issues are already illegal under existing laws, and the CFTC has the authority to crack down on bad actors. Banning or over-restricting these markets to stop a few cheaters feels like punishing everyone for the actions of a few. It's like shutting down a library because someone might steal a book.
I'm particularly interested in your questions under Topic Area B, like Question 7 on balancing innovation with consumer protection, and Question 8 on the public benefits of price discovery. Prediction markets clearly offer a public good through their forecasting accuracy, and I believe regulation should focus on protecting users while allowing this innovation to grow. They shouldn't be lumped in with gaming or treated as a threat.
In closing, I urge the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't let fears of misuse lead to bans or heavy-handed rules that push this activity offshore or underground. Keep these markets accessible, transparent, and safe for people like me who value their unique insights. Thank you for considering my perspective.
Sincerely,
Ethan Furgionez
