Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Jeremie Fox, and I'm a business owner based in New York. I run a small company here, navigating the ups and downs of regulations, taxes, and economic shifts. Im writing to share my thoughts on the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I actively trade on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, and I strongly support well-regulated prediction markets. Theyve been valuable to me, and I believe they benefit society when handled right.
As a business owner, Im always looking for better information to make decisions. Prediction markets give me insights I cant get from polls or pundits. Ive seen firsthand how their forecasts on elections or economic indicators are often more accurate than whats on the news. That helps me plan for potential policy changes that could affect my business. I dont see this as gambling at all. Trading on these platforms requires research and judgment, just like investing in stocks. Classifying event contracts as gaming feels wrong when they serve real economic purposes like price discovery and hedging. Id urge the CFTC to consider this in response to Questions 15-22 on listed activities.
I also believe regulated markets like Kalshi are far safer than unregulated offshore platforms. If the CFTC bans or over-restricts these markets, people like me will just turn to less secure options abroad. Thats a loss for consumer protection and for U.S. leadership in financial innovation. We should be leading the way on this, not ceding ground to other countries. On Questions 7-14 about public interest, I think the balance tips toward supporting innovation with smart rules, not heavy-handed limits.
Another point I care about is insider trading and manipulation concerns, as raised in Questions 29-32. I get why this worries people, but the CFTC already has strong tools to tackle fraud and manipulation in other derivatives markets. Use those tools here. Plus, informed trading actually improves price discovery, making the markets predictions more useful for everyone. Banning these markets to stop a few bad actors would punish honest participants like me.
Ive used prediction markets to hedge risks tied to political outcomes that could impact my business taxes or regulations. Thats not a game; its practical. Shutting down or over-regulating these tools would hurt small business owners like me who rely on them for real-world decisions. I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation that addresses specific risks without broad bans or restrictions.
Thank you for considering my input. I hope youll craft rules that keep prediction markets accessible and safe under CFTC oversight.
Sincerely,
Jeremie Fox
