Comment Text:
I do not think prediction markets should be allowed to offer trades on sports, which are already regulated, nor things like "will this person take an action," which can be easily rigged by someone close to the subject, undermining confidence in the market. For example, the 80% chance that Trump's cabinet announces aliens exist is not the wisdom of the crowd implying there is a 20% chance aliens exist. This would be easy money for any astronomer. It's more like a 20% chance someone in a position of power decides to enrich themselves by triggering the criteria for the outcome to resolve as "true," with or without the aliens.
