Comment Text:
Dear Chairman and Commissioners,
My name is Filip, and I'm a professional trader and investor. I actively trade on prediction markets like Kalshi, and I'm writing in response to the Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516). I strongly support the development of well-regulated prediction markets in the United States.
This is truly a unique and emergent industry that improves market function and efficiency and removes barriers to entry.
Previously, to place a trade that could be solved with a binary outcomes, 0,1 I would need to look for proxy/beta trades that inherently involved basis risk which In complex matters that may involve multi-leg trades or bank structuring that implicitly increase leverage in the system and dealer costs. These exchanges provide a simple, clean solution as well as price discovery which is transparent.
The concerns about manipulation or insider trading are real, I have seen it first hand, but I don't think the answer is to restrict or ban these markets.
Looking at some of your questions in the ANPR, especially numbers 7 and 8 on balancing innovation with consumer protection, I urge you to prioritize rules that encourage growth while addressing specific risks with targeted oversight.
In closing, I ask the CFTC to support proportionate regulation of prediction markets. Don't ban or overly restrict them. They provide unique value through forecasting and hedging, and with the right rules, they can thrive safely under your supervision. Thank you for considering my input.
Sincerely,
Filip
